Ty Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Ty Johnson

RB · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+529/-660).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +625 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +529.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a mere 28.04 seconds per play, the Bills offense comes in as the 10th-fastest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing improved weather in this week's contest.
The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
With a fantastic ratio of 0.10 per game through the air (79th percentile), Ty Johnson rates as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among running backs last year.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills as the 4th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 10th-most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (45.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Bills.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.