Ty Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Ty Johnson

RB · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 11:37 AM EST

Analysis

Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+630/-1011).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 65.0 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better weather in this game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
With a fantastic ratio of 0.10 per game through the air (76th percentile), Ty Johnson rates as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs last year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (48.3% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
Ty Johnson has put up a puny -2.0 air yards per game last year: just 21st percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football versus the Texans defense last year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
The Texans defense has allowed the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs: 0.12 per game last year.