Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Tucker Kraft

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 8:13 PM EST

Analysis

Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.
Tucker Kraft has run a route on 75.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
The predictive model expects Tucker Kraft to notch 6.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Tucker Kraft's 52.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 80.4% figure.
Tucker Kraft's 8.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks a significant reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 11.4 rate.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a mere 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-best in the NFL.