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Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-101/-135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.The leading projections forecast Tucker Kraft to total 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.Tucker Kraft has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 81.0% of snaps compared to just 51.9% last year.Since the start of last season, the stout Vikings defense has conceded a paltry 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-best in the league.The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in football.
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