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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% red zone pass rate.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.67 per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

Tua Tagovailoa's 57.8% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a noteable decrease in his passing precision over last season's 69.6% mark.

The Bills defense has surrendered the fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.06 per game since the start of last season.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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