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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.

The Dolphins have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.1 plays per game.

Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 35.1 passes per game this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among QBs.

Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 69.6% to 74.7%.

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 1.88 per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Dolphins being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football vs. the New York Jets defense this year (68.0% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the daunting New York Jets defense has given up a feeble 0.75 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the best rate in the NFL.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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