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Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-143/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -143.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Dolphins have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Tua Tagovailoa is positioned as one of the best precision passers in the league this year with an excellent 70.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 92nd percentile.The Rams defense has yielded the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.88 per game this year.The Los Angeles Rams linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dolphins to pass on 57.2% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.The leading projections forecast Tua Tagovailoa to throw 34.4 passes in this game, on average: the fewest out of all QBs.Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Rams, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.This year, the strong Rams defense has surrendered a puny 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in the league.
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