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Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Dolphins as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.Miami's passing stats last year may be artificially deflated (and running stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with better conditions in this week's game.This week, Tua Tagovailoa is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 10th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.5. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.2 per game) last year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the league last year in covering pass-catchers.
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