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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -177 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -205.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.08 per game this year.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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