Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 67.4% Completion%, checking in at the 87th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 31.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.