Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 14-point favorite in this game.
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
This year, the poor Raiders run defense has conceded a massive 139.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 35.6% run rate.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 53.3 per game on average).
Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a mere 1.8 carries per game this year, one of the smallest rates in football among quarterbacks (25th percentile).
Tua Tagovailoa has picked up just 4.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in football among QBs (11th percentile).

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