Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (10.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.8% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Tua Tagovailoa's rushing efficiency has gotten better this season, accumulating 5.31 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.47 mark last season.
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (148 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to total 2.6 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.

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