My Account Log Out

reorder

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 266.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 274.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

With an exceptional record of 281.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa rates among the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season.

With a remarkable 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best per-play QBs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

Tua Tagovailoa's 57.8% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a noteable decrease in his passing precision over last season's 69.6% mark.

The Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™