Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 264.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 269.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The model projects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 37.9 passes in this contest, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa checks in as one of the top passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 283.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (62.3% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the imposing Texans defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a puny 7.3 yards.
The Houston cornerbacks project as the 8th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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