Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 242.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 241.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).
With an outstanding 71.7% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa ranks among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
Tua Tagovailoa's 227.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his throwing prowess over last year's 282.0 rate.

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