Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:10 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 256.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 254.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.4% to 72.2%.
Tua Tagovailoa's pass-game effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 8.36 yards-per-target compared to just 6.84 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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