Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Interceptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-132).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 0.89 interceptions per game this year, grading out in the 21st percentile when it comes to QBs.
The Tennessee Titans have intercepted 0.25 targets per game this year, ranking as the worst defense in the NFL by this metric
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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