Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in football this year with a stellar 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.