Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 70.7%.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

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