Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in football last year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Washington's group of DEs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 10th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a mere 1.7 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in football when it comes to QBs (22nd percentile).

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