Treylon Burks Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Treylon Burks

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Treylon Burks Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+124/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Treylon Burks has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 18.7% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.