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Trey Palmer

Trey Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

With a feeble 56.8% Adjusted Completion% (10th percentile) this year, Trey Palmer ranks among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

The Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) versus wideouts this year (61.6%).

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