Trey McBride Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+189/-228).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -2043 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -228.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.2 plays per game.
With an impressive 34.5% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Trey McBride ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.
As it relates to air yards, Trey McBride ranks in the lofty 100th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a massive 67.0 per game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are expected by the projections to run just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather this week.
The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a meager 71.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.