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Trey McBride

Trey McBride Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7-point underdog this week.

This week, Trey McBride is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.1 targets.

Trey McBride has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.1% last year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

With a fantastic 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (90th percentile) last year, Trey McBride places as one of the top TE receiving threats in football.

The Bills pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.2%) to tight ends last year (77.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Cardinals as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.

Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Bills, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 32.6 per game) last year.

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