Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 59.8% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
Trey McBride's receiving talent has declined this season, notching just 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to 3.1 last season.
This year, the fierce Ravens defense has surrendered a meager 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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