Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to garner 7.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Trey McBride has been much more involved in his team's air attack this year (17.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (7.2%).
With a fantastic 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Trey McBride places as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) to TEs this year (69.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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