Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The projections expect Trey McBride to notch 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
While Trey McBride has earned 16.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Arizona's passing offense in this week's game at 24.5%.
Trey McBride checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

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