Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to total 8.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
The projections expect Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack in this week's contest (24.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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