Trey Lance Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Trey Lance Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 186.5 (+105/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 197.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 186.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to attempt 26.7 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.