Trey Lance Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:43 AM UTC

Analysis

Trey Lance Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to total 9.6 carries in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (29.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.