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Trevor Siemian Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 176.5 (+105/-137).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 186.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 176.5 @ -137.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.The New York Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.24 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.THE BLITZ projects Trevor Siemian to attempt 19.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
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