Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+456/-488).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 60.5% figure.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.00 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The running touchdown column reads "0" on the back of Trevor Lawrence's trading card this year.
The Texans defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Jaguars have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
The leading projections forecast Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the end zone in this contest (16.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
This year, the tough Texans defense has surrendered a feeble 1.20 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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