Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+335/-355).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 69.0%.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top TD throwers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 2.00 per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
With a lousy ratio of just 0.00 rushing touchdowns per game (3rd percentile), Trevor Lawrence places as one of the worst running quarterbacks in the league this year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Philadelphia's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in football.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
The Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.2 plays per game.
In this game, Trevor Lawrence is anticipated by the projection model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.0.

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