Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-376).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 60.5% to 66.1%.
With a terrific ratio of 1.57 per game (85th percentile), Trevor Lawrence rates among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Bengals defense has been torched for the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.75 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The model projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his team's running game near the end zone in this contest (18.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
With a fantastic rate of 0.26 touchdowns on the ground per game (90th percentile), Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the top running QBs in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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