Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+317/-344).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 58.9% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year's 60.5% rate.
With an impressive rate of 1.50 per game (82nd percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).
Since the start of last season, the strong New England Patriots run defense has given up a measly 0.58 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have just 126.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his team's run game near the goal line this week (19.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.3% in games he has played).
With a remarkable ratio of 0.27 TDs on the ground per game (90th percentile), Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the best running QBs in football since the start of last season.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New England's group of DTs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.