Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-420).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.5% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a massive 58.4 per game on average).
In this week's game, Trevor Lawrence is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.8.

Favors Under

The projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game (22.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.7% in games he has played).
With a weak 61.1% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) since the start of last season, Trevor Lawrence rates among the least accurate QBs in football.
With an outstanding ratio of 0.29 rushing touchdowns per game (93rd percentile), Trevor Lawrence places among the best running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the stout Denver Broncos defense has given up a feeble 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-best rate in football.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Broncos defense has surrendered a mere 1.11 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.