Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +277 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top touchdown passers in the NFL last year, averaging an outstanding 1.45 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a big 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 59.3% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Jaguars offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.97 seconds per snap.
In this week's contest, Trevor Lawrence is expected by the projections to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.5.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense last year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.