Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+154/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -203 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.7%.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.33 per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
The Colts defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.57 per game this year.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 10 points.
The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a measly 55.3 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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