Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+122/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 60.5% figure.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.00 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
The Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
This year, the tough Texans defense has surrendered a feeble 1.20 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.