Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 69.0%.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top TD throwers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 2.00 per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
The Philadelphia defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in football this year in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
The Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.2 plays per game.
In this game, Trevor Lawrence is anticipated by the projection model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.0.