Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 60.5% to 66.1%.
With a terrific ratio of 1.57 per game (85th percentile), Trevor Lawrence rates among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Bengals defense has been torched for the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.75 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.