Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 58.9% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year's 60.5% rate.
With an impressive rate of 1.50 per game (82nd percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have just 126.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.