Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 63.0%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (74.5%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 47.0% red zone pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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