Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+168/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 63.2%.

Favors Under

The Jaguars have been the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.6% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 0.43 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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