Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.0% to 66.6%.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.