Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.0% to 65.6%.

Favors Under

The Jaguars have been the 8th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 51.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.