Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-117/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game in this game (15.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Jaguars have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Trevor Lawrence has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
Trevor Lawrence's 3.95 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his rushing ability over last season's 5.24 mark.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 77.0 per game) versus the Texans defense this year.
The Texans defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.