Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+103/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 6-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to run on 45.7% of their downs: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
While Trevor Lawrence has received 8.0% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 16.1%.
With a stellar rate of 2.57 yards-after-contact (80th percentile), Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the top running QBs in football this year.
This year, the shaky Philadelphia Eagles run defense has yielded a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
The Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.2 plays per game.
Trevor Lawrence's 8.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a noteworthy decrease in his rushing talent over last season's 19.0 rate.
Trevor Lawrence's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating just 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.24 rate last season.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Philadelphia's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in football.