Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-104/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's ground game in this game (16.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
With a remarkable total of 3.27 yards-after-contact (94th percentile), Trevor Lawrence stands as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in football this year.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Bengals run defense has given up a meager 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 30th-lowest rate in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence's ground effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 3.71 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.24 rate last year.