Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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